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| (IA) 1/08 - Full data sets Iowa Dem c... |
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Bev Harris
Board Administrator
Username: Admin
Post Number: 7352
Registered: 12-2004
Best of Black Box? N/A
Votes: 0 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Friday, January 4, 2008 - 10:32 am: | 
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Note: You'll need moderate geek skills to extrapolate and analyze this data, which comes from the live results reporting software used by the Iowa Democratic Party to report results at http://www.iowacaucusresults.com on Jan. 3, 2008
EXERCISES
- Compare iterations to see if any precinct data fluctuated after it was posted
- Compare final results percentages with announced percentages for each candidate
- Examine Obama announced final percentage vs. the final percent in this data, see if the 2.5% discrepancy can be explained with rounding to integers.
quote:(From John Howard) The DEM results web site refers to 3 different pages at amazon:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/caucuspublic/index_fund.html
http://s3.amazonaws.com/caucuspublic/index_live.html
and
http://s3.amazonaws.com/caucuspublic/index_real.html
although I haven't been able to determine any difference between them.
I suspect that the critical file is: http://s3.amazonaws.com/caucuspublic/upload/full_data.txt
Interesting to see that some of the images appear to be coming from www.forbin.com/results which is referenced from:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/caucuspublic/images/_notes/dwsync.xml
All of which can be located by reading the xml file at:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/caucuspublic/
Counties can be identified by examining this file:
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-county.js.txt
(4 KB)
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-precinct.js.txt
(96 KB)
Data files
If other BBV members captured iterations before 8:58 pm CST, would like to get them by e-mail or upload them here.
FINAL RESULTS
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/final-full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008.txt
INTERIM RESULTS
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-8-58- pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-9-15- pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-9-18- pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-9-19- pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-9-24- pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-9-27- pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-9-30- pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-9-32- pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-9-36- pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-9-38- pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-9-57- pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-10-04 -pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-10-34 -pm.txt
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-10-49 -pm.txt
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From the Mailbag
Frequent Voting Rights Forum Participant
Username: Mailbag
Post Number: 205
Registered: 10-2005
Best of Black Box? 
Votes: 1 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Friday, January 4, 2008 - 11:12 am: |
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(Submitted by e-mail from Arthur Keller - provides links and helpful hints for doing the rounding conversions)
quote:Iowa has arcane rules for how it allocates delegates through caucuses. Each caucus allocates County Convention Delegates. That involves a round-off and second-choice process.
The number of County Convention Delegates is then rounded off to create the number of State Convention Delegates.
The Iowa Democratic Party reports the percentages of the State Convention Delegates at http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/ as well as the numbers of County Convention Delegates at each County.
However, how many State Convention Delegates are allocated based on the County Convention Delegates depends on a weighting per county, based on votes in the 2004 and 2006 elections (according to Chris Allen, a spokesman for the Iowa Democratic Party).
For example, the weighting for Adair County is 0.08 State Delegates per County Convention Delegate, while in Adams County it is 0.06, in Allamakee County it is 0.15, and in Appanoose County it is 0.18.
The weightings are found in the Delegate Apportionment charts found at http://www.iowafirstcaucus.org/pdfs/08_delegate_apportionment.pdf
Perhaps if you can figure out which precincts in your data correspond to which precincts in the 2008 Delegate Apportionment, you can create a spreadsheet that verifies the calculations accordingly.
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Mike LaBonte
Voting Rights Forum Participant
Username: Mike_labonte
Post Number: 47
Registered: 12-2005
Best of Black Box?
Votes: 1 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Friday, January 4, 2008 - 11:39 am: |
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The attached file is derived from the Javascript program used to calculate the Iowa Democratic statewide candidate percentages. The first column is the county number, which matches the numbers in the precinct data file. The 2nd column is the county name. Can someone tell me what the 3rd and 4th columns mean? I think they are the number of county convention and state convention delegates for each county.
The Javascript procedure for calculating official statewide totals for each candidate multiplies the number reported at each precinct by the 4th column of the county file and divides by the 3rd column. So I think it figures out the percent of county convention delegates each candidate won, and multiplies that by the county's state convention delegates to get a total number of delegates the candidate sends to the state convention.
This implements the per-county weighting, with weights ranging from 2.46 to 21.89. It explains how the straight-calculated percentages would not match the Javascript-calculated percentages.
Note that the code for displaying the results insures that the percentages add up to 100%, by dividing each candidate's delegate total by the sum of totals. The problem I have with this is that the party knows how many total candidates they allow, and should divide by that number. The way they do it avoids a simple error check.
Also there is no rounding to get an integral number of delegates. They really should have reported actual delegate counts.
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Mike LaBonte
Voting Rights Forum Participant
Username: Mike_labonte
Post Number: 48
Registered: 12-2005
Best of Black Box?
Votes: 1 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Friday, January 4, 2008 - 1:04 pm: |
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One more spreadsheet. This one ties almost everything together for the Iowa Democrats.
The second set of candidate columns may be completely wrong, but they use a formula that emulates what the Javascript code does. I think they are wrong because they result in a grand total of 1078.8 state convention delegates, while the Iowa Democrats actually have 2500. I don't think the lack of rounding is the problem. I'll keep looking into it.
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John Howard
Frequent Voting Rights Forum Participant
Username: Harmonyguy
Post Number: 541
Registered: 12-2004
Best of Black Box? N/A
Votes: 0 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Friday, January 4, 2008 - 8:08 pm: |
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Attached are eight more datasets (starting at 2017cst with some very close to your existing captures) named per their capture times along with a pointer to the javascript file that did the actual calculations.
Mike, if you don't already have this, you may find it interesting.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/caucuspublic/upload/functions.js
Bev - You may want to relink these datasets.
Tracking changes over time is always interesting!!
HG;) |
Bev Harris
Board Administrator
Username: Admin
Post Number: 7371
Registered: 12-2004
Best of Black Box? N/A
Votes: 0 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Saturday, January 5, 2008 - 7:27 pm: |
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Some of the results, in some time slices and especially in Johnson County, seem to carry a flag in the databases I captured and uploaded. Perhaps this is an artifact of the file format I saved it in.
From five to eight counties in each time slice are marked by a "1" and occasionally one county is marked by a "2" in some time slices.
This is usually in Johnson County but one precinct in Delaware, one in Warren, and one in Van Buren also carry this marker in most of the time slices. This is not entirely consistent from time slice to time slice.
I didn't see these in John Howard's files.
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John Howard
Frequent Voting Rights Forum Participant
Username: Harmonyguy
Post Number: 543
Registered: 12-2004
Best of Black Box? N/A
Votes: 0 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Saturday, January 5, 2008 - 7:30 pm: |
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Just working through all of these just now. May have some insights by morning - if my eyes don't blur completely by then.
Not everyone used the same technique for saving the files, so I need to split some of the files before loading them - just a bit more time consuming.
HG;) |
Bev Harris
Board Administrator
Username: Admin
Post Number: 7372
Registered: 12-2004
Best of Black Box? N/A
Votes: 0 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Saturday, January 5, 2008 - 8:46 pm: |
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time conversion - Catherine's files are time stamped in Ireland, right?
So according to "The World Clock" I found on Google, http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/
Sun 4:45 AM in London is now which is 10:45 PM in Iowa, right? So Catherine's 3:23 AM file would be Iowa 9:23 PM.
Let me know if I got that correct.
I'll permalink Catherine's files into this section shortly. |
John Howard
Frequent Voting Rights Forum Participant
Username: Harmonyguy
Post Number: 544
Registered: 12-2004
Best of Black Box? N/A
Votes: 0 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Saturday, January 5, 2008 - 9:27 pm: |
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That's where I place them too. They 'seem' to match according to the progression of the file size growth.
HG;) |
Bev Harris
Board Administrator
Username: Admin
Post Number: 7373
Registered: 12-2004
Best of Black Box? N/A
Votes: 0 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Saturday, January 5, 2008 - 11:27 pm: |
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Okay, forget about the flags or markers. That was from an import I did that didn't delimit properly.
I've got all of the time slices into one sortable database. I won't look at it until tomorrow morning. This is a nice technology and a useful citizen monitoring tool. |
Catherine Ansbro
Frequent Voting Rights Forum Participant
Username: Catherine_a
Post Number: 4278
Registered: 12-2004
Best of Black Box? N/A
Votes: 0 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Sunday, January 6, 2008 - 5:11 am: |
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Yes. If Iowa is 1 hour behind EST that means a 6 hr time difference total. |
David Luebbers
Voting Rights Forum Participant
Username: David_luebbers
Post Number: 26
Registered: 1-2008
Best of Black Box? N/A
Votes: 0 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Saturday, January 12, 2008 - 7:03 pm: |
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this might be relavent to you guys
This is a program that you can download that will compare 2 files with eachother. IF there are any changes it highlights them.
http://www.bbvforums.org/forums/messages/1954/71105.html?1200193251
"It doesn't matter who votes. It only matters who counts the ballots." Stalin
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David Luebbers
Voting Rights Forum Participant
Username: David_luebbers
Post Number: 27
Registered: 1-2008
Best of Black Box?
Votes: 1 (A keeper?) | | Posted on Saturday, January 12, 2008 - 7:26 pm: |
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Bev Could you answere a quick question for me about these files ?
1. Are these the Vote results based on that particular time?
Whatever it is my little file check found lots of things wrong with the comparison of the files you uploaded. Take note i compared two files you uploaded. the first of the interim results and the last .
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-8-58- pm.txt
And
http://www.bbvdocs.org/IA/state/full-data-iowa-democratic-caucus-2008-asof-10-49 -pm.txt
This is just the first 2 out of many many iregularitys i noticed.
Top is always the first file bottom is always the last file in sequence
Line 39
7,38,0,2,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,0 7,39,0,1,0,2,0,0,2,0,0,0 7,40,1,2,0,1,0,0,2,0,0,0
7,36,0,3,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,0 7,37,0,2,0,3,0,0,2,0,0,0 7,38,0,2,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,0
Line 40
7,44,0,1,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,0 7,45,0,3,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,0 7,46,0,1,0,2,0,0,6,0,0,0
7,39,0,1,0,2,0,0,2,0,0,0 7,40,1,2,0,1,0,0,2,0,0,0 7,41,0,5,0,2,0,0,3,0,0,0
Once again i am unfamiliar with exactly what these numbers represent .. There might be a legit reason why some of the last files numbers are LOWER then the first files numbers..
All i do know is in my file analysis there were Many many differences .. And i am not counting what would be normal.. A +1 or more .. I am counting where the numbers Decreased.
More then likely my analysis is off considering i have no clue how what the numbers are suposed to represent.
Anyways i hope this helps in some way..
"It doesn't matter who votes. It only matters who counts the ballots." Stalin
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Iowa 2008 Democratic County Delegates
Dataset 2017
